Nuclear Verdicts Are Growing in Size: Research Finds

Nuclear verdicts, those of $10 million or more, in personal injury and wrongful death cases are on the rise, according to a new analysis.

A recent report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Institute for Legal Reform (ILR) found that nuclear verdicts quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter of 2021.

In 2022, the number of reported nuclear verdicts was shy of the record highs set in 2016 and 2018.

Key findings

The analysis found a median verdict of $21 million but an average of $89 million, impacted by the most extreme awards.

• Nuclear verdicts were most frequent in product liability (23.3%), auto accident (23.2%), and medical liability (20.3%) cases.
• Preliminary data indicates that the proportion of nuclear verdicts in medical liability trials jumped to nearly 30% in 2023.
• Product liability nuclear verdicts are increasing far more quickly than other verdict types. The average value hit $36 million in 2022, a 50% increase over a decade.
• California, Florida, New York, and Texas collectively produce half of the nation’s nuclear verdicts.
• Noneconomic compensatory damages continue to play an outsized role in nuclear verdicts.

“Nuclear verdicts consist primarily of awards of noneconomic damages, such as pain and suffering. This means that the lion’s share of nuclear verdicts during the 10-year study period are attributable to subjective damage assessments by jurors that have inflated over time,” the ILR said in its report.

Drivers of Nuclear Verdicts

A variety of factors inside and outside the courtroom are fueling mega-verdicts.

In the courtroom, plaintiffs’ lawyers employ tactics to inflame jurors’ emotions and use noneconomic damages to “send a message.” Another tactic is to engage in “anchoring,” in which lawyers suggest a specific sum during the closing arguments to a jury.

Outside of court, the public is inundated with ads suggesting verdicts and settlements in the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars are normal. Additionally, third-party litigation funding is rising as outside investors back lawsuits in return for a portion of any recovery.

Nuclear Verdict Impacts

Nuclear verdicts affect the costs of goods and services, including higher insurance costs. According to the report, nuclear verdicts are partially responsible for rising insurance premiums for medical professionals and the trucking industry.

According to data from the Medical Liability Monitor, premiums for doctors in some areas known for nuclear verdicts, including counties in Illinois and Georgia, have substantially increased.

“Nuclear verdicts adversely affect society,” the ILR wrote. “The prospect of a nuclear verdict makes it more difficult to fairly resolve claims, leading to unnecessary litigation and appeals. Nuclear verdicts can threaten the viability of a business or the availability of a needed product or create insurability problems for an entire industry.”

Methodology: The Chamber’s ILR analyzed 1,288 verdicts between Jan. 1, 2013, and Dec. 31, 2022.

The bottom line: “The consequences of allowing nuclear verdicts to continue to proliferate will be increasingly felt throughout society.” The ILR says legislative solutions are needed to reduce the likelihood of excessive damage awards before they occur.

Go deeper: Read all the findings of “Nuclear Verdicts: An Update on Trends, Causes, and Solutions.”